Will the future of agriculture be able to feed us come 2050?
In a world grappling with climate change, increasing population, and a continuing pandemic, Russia’s sudden invasion of Ukraine threatens to unleash huge waves of disruptions to global food security. Will we have enough to feed the world in 2050?
We are now in a major crisis. With rising temperatures and a burgeoning global population, the world already has a hefty weight on its shoulders trying to ensure a sustainable future for food security. Then, the pandemic hit and food prices surged even further. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Food Price Index, the benchmark measure for world food prices, shot to an all-time high in February 2022.
According to the United Nations, the world population is expected to reach 9.7 billion in 2050; it is estimated that the number of people experiencing food insecurity could reach a 15-year high due to climate change, COVID-19, and the impending consequences of Russia’s war on Ukraine. Now, as we watch the war unfold, the continuing conflict is adding even more woes to the global food production system.
The War That Is Turning Into A Global Food Emergency
Both Ukraine and Russia account for 30 percent of wheat and 20 percent of maize exports globally and are major suppliers of barley and sunflower to international markets. Given both countries’ significance to export markets, Russia’s invasion has severely injured the shipments of important food commodities to import-reliant countries, sending shockwaves to global food security.
The war is also pushing fertilizer prices up further at a time when the planting of major crops is critical to meet global supplies. With surging natural gas prices and an ongoing energy crunch, the cost of producing fertilizers and transportation costs for agricultural production are skyrocketing.
Russia exported $7.6 billion in fertilizers in 2020. Last year, it was also the world’s largest exporter of NPKs (nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium) - the three key nutrients that make up complete fertilizers. As Western sanctions-hit Russia, coupled with Russia’s move to stop fertilizer exports to global markets, fertilizer prices will climb further and impact subsequent harvests, exacerbating food inflation worldwide.
Our Value Chain Is Being Threatened
Demand for food is escalating at the same time where the supply side is facing serious constraints in natural resources. By 2030, we will face a 40 per cent shortfall in water availability, and one-quarter of arable land needs major restoration to sustain crops. Energy and nutrient costs are increasing as climate change continues to rage havoc. We are now in a precarious position where crucial links of the value chain are being threatened, and it begs the question if we have the ability to feed 10 billion people in 2050.
Perhaps a more pressing question should be: How do we scale up production to meet the rising food demand?
Transforming Agriculture To Boost Productivity
Biotechnology to improve nutrition and increase production
Many current farming practices require huge amounts of water, fertilizers, and pesticides, which threaten the long-term sustainability of agriculture. Agriculture biotechnology focuses on gene editing to create better crop varieties that require less water, fertilizers, pesticides, and land use. The future of biotechnology will enable farmers to edit genes in crops to be more disease-resistant, climate-resilient, and have even better nutritional values.
Data-driven farming for targeted intervention
Data-driven agriculture will make farming more accurate and controlled through sensors, GPS, drones, monitoring systems, automation, and other information technology. For instance, drone-deployed sensors can deliver critical imagery from remote fields to provide early detection of potential problems such as pests or diseases. This will aid farmers in taking timely preventive measures to protect their crops. By connecting real-time data with automation, farmers can perform targeted interventions to boost yield while reducing labor and generating fuel savings.
RISING POPULARITY FOR URBAN FARMING
A rising popularity for urban farming spiked in Singapore during the Covid-19 circuit breaker, where panic-buying resulted in markets being depleted of a variety of products, including different types of vegetables.
Enhanced crop inputs for sustainable and healthier crops
For sustainable agriculture to happen, we need more advanced crop inputs that can reduce nutrient wastage and over-fertilizing while promoting healthier crops. Conventional fertilizers, when applied to soil in exceeding amounts for crop growth, often result in nutrient wastage. When nutrients are not fully utilized by the crops, the excess nutrients can be lost through volatilization, run-offs, or leaching. This results in eutrophication of nearby water bodies and groundwater contamination, causing hypoxia and harmful algal blooms.
RYNAN Smart Fertilizers are specially formulated with a patented nano-coating technology that controls the rate of nutrient release to suit crop needs, thus minimizing nutrient wastage. Unlike conventional fertilizers, typically, only a single application is needed at the beginning of each growing season. This prevents over-fertilizing, helps farmers save labor costs, and mitigates environmental impact while increasing yield.
Agriculture has massive responsibilities and the significance of sustainable Agriculture will have massive impact on climate changes, read this article where we talk about creating a greener future for Agriculture.
Greenhouses and vertical farming produce far greater yields
Farming in controlled environments such as greenhouses tends to produce greater yields per area than conventional farms, as they are protected from pests and weather conditions. When multiple layers of such greenhouses are stacked up vertically, this increases the yields further. Vertical farming is set to grow exponentially in the coming years. When combined with hydroponics and aeroponics, crops grow even faster, ensuring that fresh produce is more readily available.
The FAO has reported that agriculture in 2050 will need to produce almost 50 percent more food, feed, and biofuel than it did in 2012. As the world enters into an unpredictable phase with international conflicts, reaching this target will be no mean feat, and agriculture needs an urgent transformation to meet the world’s demand.
The only way to feed 10 billion people by 2050 is if agriculture becomes much more sustainable. And it needs to start now.
To learn more about how RYNAN Smart Fertilizers produce sustainable and profitable agricultural yields, get in touch with us over here.
References:
Susan Reidy, FAO’s Food Price Index reaches all-time high in February, World-Grain.com (9 Mar 2022)
Growing at a slower pace, world population is expected to reach 9.7 billion in 2050 and could peak at nearly 11 billion around 2100, United Nations (17 June 2019)
Fertilizers in Russia, OEC (Trade, Complexity and Rankings updated to 2020)
Ukraine crisis highlights Russia fertilizer supply risk, Argus (23 Feb 2022)
Christina Lu, Russia’s Invasion Unleashes ‘Perfect Storm’ in Global Agriculture, Foreign Policy Report (24 Mar 2022)
Ukraine war piles pressure on global food system already in crisis, The Guardian, (March 2022)
Elizabeth Elkin, Russia Jolts Global Fertilizer Market by Seeking End to Exports, Bloomberg, (5 Mar 2022)
World Could Face Water Availability Shortfall by 2030 if Current Trends Continue, Secretary-General Warns at Meeting of High-Level Panel, United Nations (21 Sep 2016)